If the Reds manage to eek out a win, it is not because of Dusty Baker, it is in spite of him.

What is a good manager worth? I've heard people say managers don't make that big of difference, maybe 5-10 games a year. I think its more than that. You have to have a team around you, but a good manager, who knows how to put the right people in the right place at the right time, to me, is worth at least 20 games per year. Thats easily the difference between going to the playoffs, and sitting at home watching them on your HDTV.

I used to think Dusty Baker was a decent manger. I'll admit, when he was hired I was nervous. His reputation isn't the best, especially with young arms in the rotation. But I wanted to give him a fair chance and see what he could do. When he first started giving interviews I really liked him. Here was a manager that talked like a fan, seemed to speak his mind, got along with the players, and didn't have stupid cute nicknames for everybody. Here was a guy I could get behind.

Now we're nearly halfway into the season, 12 and a half games out, in last place. Not all of that is Dusty's fault. Sure the team has had some really bad luck with injuries at SS, been completely unable to find a decent #5 starter, been getting pathetic performances from some of your key players ...  but some if it *is* directly on Dusty's shoulders. What other Manager would give Corey Patterson 164 at bats to prove his futility? What other manager would have let Matt Belisle start that many times? And I know its not specific but it seems nearly every night he runs a linup out that nearly everyone has a problem with.

Not everything he's done has been bad. Until he got injured Jerry Hairston was a great boon to the reds. But most of our other bright spots this year (Edinson Volquez, Jay Bruce,  Joey Votto) were nothing to do with Dusty. 

I'm not saying Dusty should be fired, but if I'm Jocketty I bring him in the office and have a little chat about this man crush on Patterson, about playing smart baseball, and about firing Dick Pole (another rant for another day) and about how this is his last chance to manage a MLB team ever, because if he screws this up, no way another team is hiring him. Maybe that will bring him out of this stupid croneyism.

Last night when I was at the Cyclones game and they went into the third period down 3-0 I said to my son, "A wise man once said, it ain't over till its over."

We were not dissappointed.

Today in the 1st inning when the Reds went down 0-3, I said to my son, "It's over."

We were dissapponted.

"We're not afraid to push, as long as we feel that player can handle some failure."

- Bob Melvin, manager of the team who currently owns the best record in baseball, the Arizona Diamondbacks

Why are some of our top prospects are still in AAA as opposed to with the big club? I have heard the official reasons. Jay Bruce isn't ready. He still makes mistakes in the outfield. He strikes out too much. Homer Bailey needs to work on his pitch count and learn to work out of a jam.

Blah. Blah. Blah. The Reds are 7 games under 500. They're also 7 games back of the 1st place Cardinals. Swapping Bill Bray in and out with whichever pitcher is injured this week is not going to make up those 7 games.

If you look around baseball the teams that are winning have either one of two things: A lot of money, or a lot of young talent. The Reds have young talent, the talent on the big league team is the only reason they're only 7 games under 500. Could you imagine where this team would be right now if Volquez and Cueto were not in the rotation?

I'm not saying the experts are wrong about Bailey and Bruce. I just fail to see why it would be such a bad thing. Bruce may make an error or two in the outfield. So what? Let the kid play next to his childhood idol, Ken Griffey Jr. and see what kind of effect a positive influence like that would have on his play. So Bailey might lose his composure. So what? He's going to have to learn how to deal with Big League pressure sooner or later, and I can't see how he'd be worse than the Belisle/Fogg mess. They brought in a guy to help Cueto through a rough patch, they can bring in a guy to help Bailey.

All I'm saying is, I hope they bring up our prospects soon. I'm tired of losing, but at least if you're going to lose, get the rookies some big league experience so that next year they can hit the ground running.

Last night I did something I haven't done for a very long time. After the 6th inning was over, Reds were up 5 to 3, I went to bed. I went to bed thinking, Reds are probably going to win.

Last year, unless they were up 5 runs I was pretty sure they were going to lose and so I went to bed sad. Now before you say I'm not a real reds fan for not staying up till the end of the game, know that I only go to bed early if I have to work the next day. :)

Anyway, its nice to feel like the bullpen is going to get the job done. I imagine that feeling is ten times better if you're a starting pitcher. Give the bullpen the ball and they'll take care of it. I'm sure they'll blow a game here or there but its certainly better than last year when it was pretty much a certainty.

Listening to this Joe Nuxhall Tribute before the first game of the season. I'm getting chills, I'm getting choked up, and sentimental. I can't believe its opening day and Joe won't be on the radio calling the game, but he'll be there.