Let's look at GM Jocketty's "shallow" 2009 free agent market for pitching.  Whoa. C.C. SABATHIA, BEN SHEETS, A.J. BURNETT, OLIVER PEREZ, etc.  He's got to be kidding or is he just saying this because the Reds aren't going to spend money.  Remember last year when the market was Carlos Silva and Kyle Loshe? (The list.)  But first let's analyze if we need starting pitching.

1.  Starting Pitching   The Reds are actually in good shape here and that's hard to say since 1990.  Aaron Harang is coming around and looks like he might regain his form. Bronson Arroyo gives you 200 innings and keeps you in games. The Dominican Duo of Edinson Volquez and Johhny Cueto look like future Cy Young candidates. Cueto will only get better, the more he learns. That leaves the no. 5 starter.

    Look, the no. 5 starter is usually not very good. But pitchers also go through slumps.  This is where the no. 5 guy can step in, should Arroyo have a bad period. You don't want everybody all at once to slump. A solid no. 5 guy might not be struggling at the same time.

     What would happen if the Reds had a C.C. Sabathia on the team?  World Series, baby. But realistically the Reds will not show him the money.  So, stand pat and use the money on Mark Teixeira.  Let Homer Bailey fight it out with Darryl Thompson. But if you want to spend some money but not Sabathia dough, sign Oliver Perez. (3.90 ERA, 9-7) He's a lefty and that could suppress an opponent's lefty power.

2.  Bullpen-   Much, much better than last year. Resign Jeremy Affeldt. He's a lefty and is a nice complement to Bill Bray. You need two lefties in the pen. Resign Mike Lincoln at your price. No three year, nine million contract.

     Let David Weathers walk. Yes, I said let him walk, John Fay. You can't look at just numbers. As detailed in this blog you have to look at stuff and what happens in an inning. When Stormy throws a scoreless inning and the outs are rockets, that tells you he's lucky.  His sinker, and slider are gone. He's a pitch to contact guy, ill suited for late innings. And his 89 mph fastball ain't gonna fool anybody.

        Jared Burton when healthy can take over his role.  Josh Roenicke maybe ready for next year.  And don't forget about Nick Masset.

3.  Odds and Ends   A fellow blogger hated my idea of signing Pudge Rodriguez as a QUALITY stop gap catcher because he will be 37 next year (Pudge will turn 38 in November, 2009.)  Paul Bako will also be 37 next year. So, there's not much difference in age. Let's face it, Pudge is a better catcher. He would only be stop gap measure until Devin Mesoraco makes it. You need two catchers to share the load, that's why I would let Ryan Hanigan take half of it.

     I don't think there's any question that the free agent market is not shallow as GM Walt Jocketty has described it. There are players that can help the Reds make the playoffs next year. And the advantage is that  you get to keep your kids to develop. It boils down to goals. Do you want to win in 2009? Spend money and do it the Chicago way. If not, then the Reds will be losing to win with the hope that one day they might make the playoffs. 

There are players on the 2009 free agent list  that can help the Reds win in 2009. So,  what message was GM Walt Jocketty saying when he said the market was "not real strong." (Cin. Enquirer, 8-10-08)  The message is that don't expect the Reds to dabble in the free agent market in 2009 because we are building within. If the Reds want to win in 2009, they'll have to do it the Chicago way. Spend money. And I don't mean they have to bring in a bunch of players. Two or three quality free agents will help immediately without hurting your player development and the advantage is that you get to keep the talented kids in the minors.

    The problem with the "lose to win"  strategy or in baseball terms, "patience" is that you run the risk of turning Cincinnati into the new Siberia for free agents. Who would want to play for a losing franchise?  When the Reds needed a new manager, do you really think that Joe Girardi was banging on Reds' door?  And you further deepen the losing culture that the Reds now have.

    The Reds don't need to get younger. The old man on the starting eight is Corey Patterson at 29 and that 's if you include Ryan Hanigan. They need veterans. Today, let's look at two glaring needs for the 2009 Reds. 

1.  The Outfield  

Once a strength two years ago, the outfiled is now a weakness. That's what happens when you trade your two best outfielders in the organization. Don't argue on this one, Griffey, Dunn and Bruce were the three best outfielders on the Reds organization. Chris Dickerson is a good guy but he's not in Jr. or Dunn's class.

     So, who's available next year on the free agency market to help the Reds? Actually what I recommend is not an outfielder but a first baseman. Go after Mark Teixeira.  He'll give you 30 HRs and over 100 RBI's a year. More importantly, he hits with runners in scoring position. His career batting average  for RISP is a whopping .324. (Splits)  That's what this team needs now. How does that help the outfield? Move Joey Votto to left. He's played there before and he can't be worse than Dunn.  

     Yes, Teixeira will be expensive. Look, we shouldn't weep for the owners who all agreed to the recent collective bargaining agreement. If the Reds want to cry poverty they should have demanded a salary cap. The question is do you want someone to anchor this team or do you want to lose for the next five to six years for the hope of a winning season?

     Another choice on the "shallow" free agent list is Carl Crawford. If the Rays don't pick up his 8 million option, the Reds should take a long look at him. Last year, he hit .315 and had 50 stolen bases. He has speed, something you can't teach.  Oh, he also hits with RISP, at a career .314. (Splits)  He'll give you 30 stolen bases a year.  He's only 27 too.

   Look at the list, Reds Nation. There are plenty of outfielders who can help the Reds in 2009. They include Pat Burrell (another Adam Dunn), Adam Dunn, Cliff Floyd, Mike Cameron, Mark Kotsay,  Bobby Abreu, Vladimir Guerrero, Milton Bradley,  and Manny Ramirez.  Wow. Look at the list yourself. (2009 free agents list from MLB Trade Rumors.) 

2.  Catcher  

With the Reds waiving David Ross, the position of catcher has fallen to Ryan Hanigan. The question is whether he is the man for next year.  He's 28, hardly a kid but it takes time to develop a catcher.  Paul Bako is a good guy but the Reds could use an upgrade here, in offense and defense. Regardless, you need two because of the rigors of the job.  

      Sign Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez.  He's a lifetime .302 average.  He's an experienced player on rebuilding teams, the 2003 Marlins, and the 2004-2007 Tigers. Both teams made the World Series during his tenure and the Marlins won in 2003.  He would hold the fort until prospect Devin Mesoraco is ready.  As a veteran, he can teach the kids how to play the game the right way.   

   So Walt what's this stuff about the market not being real strong?

.  (Photo: South Florida Sun Sentinel through Wikipedia)

Pudge Rodriguez (right) and Mike Lowell during the 2003 championship season.

The Reds preach patience but unless the team spends money next year, it's about 2012 ,if the plan works. By now, you.ve read the team's letter to fthe fans. (Reported by Enquirer.)  If you were around 2003 it sounds just like the one written back then after that legendary fire sale. The recent letter touts the sigining of prospects and talks about the future. But if you remember the 2003 letter you remember the touting of obtaining Brandon Claussen, who's in the Nationals minor league system last time I looked. The point is that you can't primarily depend on prospects.

      If the Reds are going to go the cheap route, it might take five to six years of losing. And I am not talking about growing pains where Johnny Cueto throws a cookie on a 0-2 count. I'm talking about 5-6 years of losing and stockpiling minor league talent. This is the Tampa Bay and Colorado route.  By the way, how are those Rockies doing this year?

    It is disturbing to hear GM Jocketty talk about the weak free agent market. This does not bode well for the 2009 Reds. But I question his evaluation. It just seems like a smoke screen for the team to not spend money. There are guys on the list that can help this team win. (Free agent list.)  Certainly, you can sign a Pudge Rodriguez as a catcher for a short period until a Devin Mesoraco is ready. Of course, if the Reds were serious about 2009, they sign Mark Teixeira to play first base and move Joey Votto to left field.  Talk about fantasy baseball. 

    So how did the Cubs go from 66 wins in 2006 to 85 wins in 2007? They spent money.They signed sure things like Soriano, to taking big risks by signing Marquis and Lilly.. They get Lou Piniella to lead the team.  If the top team in your division does what it takes to win, shouldn't  your Cincinnati Reds at least try to keep up?

     I propose a balanced route. Have a good farm system. Trade well. And have a competitive payroll to fill gaps. The Reds have tried the building from within. They tried it in the late nineties and in 2003. It didn't work then and it may not work four years from now.

Cubs have a better team, payroll, manager and record than our Reds. What do the Reds have over them, you ask? First, quit complaining about eight straight losing seasons, you nattering nabobs of negativity. (Thanks for that Spiro Agnew.)  Look at what we've got.:

1. Cheerleaders!

 Cin. Enquirer/Gary Landers

The Cubs  have the girly man mascot, the Cubbie Bear.

2. WE HAVE FOUR FREAKING MASCOTS!  Mr. Reds, Mr. Redlegs, Rosie Red, and Gapper. Take that you Cubbie ba#&#%ds!

We don't need no stinking victories. Give us shiny things to look at, while we lose.

Bob Castellini promised  a world championship, trading Adam Dunn for Dallas Buck, a freaking single "A" pitcher does not bring winning baseball to Cincinnati. Okay, there are two players to be named later but the Reds so far have not indicated that they are of high quality. Oops, I forgot Buck had Tommy John surgery. (Here's the press release.) The story was updated now to include assistant GM Miller's comments calling the three players, "quality players." Okay, but why so low key? Why not a news conference?  This is a big move.

    Before you think they got a ton of cash for 2009, guess again. GM Walt Jocketty said in the Cincinnati Enquirer that the free agent market is "not real strong." (Cincinnati Enquirer, 8-10-08, C-9 col. 2)  That's the sign the Reds probably won't do much about it.

     Mr. Castellini, please sell the Reds now. Find an owner who will do what it takes to put a winner on the field. I don't care if it's Rupert Murdoch, George Soros, or Mark Cuban.