Could this be Adam Dunn's final week in a Reds uniform?
When the team exercised its option on the leftfielder this offseason,
it triggered a full no-trade clause until June 15, when the clause
changes to a limited no-trade clause, with Dunn being able to specify
10 teams to which he'd accept a trade.
That list is usually written into the player's contract, said Reds
general manager Walt Jocketty, so the Reds would already have that
list. They could also persue a trade with teams not on the list and ask
permission from Dunn, but that would be less likely to fly.
However, even though Dunn's full no-trade clause expires on Sunday,
there have been no trade discussions involving Dunn, Jocketty said
Monday evening.
"There have been no discussions," Jocketty said. "I usually don't
comment on trade talks, but there's nothing here to comment on.
Nothing's changed."
Following the end of the 2007 season, the Reds exercised their $13
million option on Dunn that could be worth as much as $16 million based
on incentives. Dunn would be a free agent following the 2008 season and
the Reds would likely get two draft picks as compensation if he left
for another team.
There have been no discussions of an extension, either, Jocketty said.
"I usually don't talk about contract extensions during the season
because they're a big distraction," Jocketty said. "And from what I've
heard, Adam feels the same way."
A lightening rod for fans during his eight seasons in Cincinnati, Dunn
is hitting .241 entering Monday night's game with a team-high 16 home
runs and 41 RBIs. He has an on-base percentage of .411 and slugging
percentage of .535. He has struck out 59 times.
Dunn's become almost a symbol of old-school baseball wisdom vs. new-school baseball metrics.
Critics point to his high strikeout totals (even though he improved
that rate last season and is striking out on an even lower clip this
season), low batting average and perception that he "isn't clutch."
Proponents point to a consistent production of runs and on-base
percentage. He has had an OPS+ of more than 100 (which is average) in
every season in the big leagues. Dunn and pitcher Edinson Volquez
currently lead the Reds in win shares with 10.
Dunn's hit at least 40 home runs in each of the last four seasons,
while driving in more than 100 in three of those seasons, walking at
least 100 times (and striking out at least 100 times) in each of those
seasons and scoring at least 99 runs in each.
According to Baseball Prospectus, before Monday's game, Dunn had a VORP
of 19.0 -- which is the value over a replacement player, it measures
the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player
at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of
team plate appearances. VORP does not count defense, only runs scored
on offense. Dunn's VORP is 32nd in baseball, better than any other Red.
If the Reds do try to trade him, a natural move would be to the Boston
Red Sox. While some teams are dismissive as such stats as OPS+ and
VORP, the Red Sox employ Bill James and have openly embraced new
theories while winning two of the last four World Series titles (also
with the help of a large payroll.)
The Red Sox will be without designated hitter David Ortiz for an
extended period of time and could use a left-handed bat with power in
the lineup. Moving to the American League would allow Dunn to DH, as
something both his detractors and proponents can agree upon is that he
is a below-average defensive outfielder. Of course, the Red Sox already
employ an below-average defensive leftfielder in Manny Ramirez.
It would be even easier because the Red Sox just happen to be in town on Sunday when his full no-trade clause expires.
Will it happen? Doubtful, but if it doesn't, the debate will surely rage on.
Jocketty: No trade talk for Dunn yet
Monday, June 9, 2008, 06:42 PM EST [Reds]
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Trent - |


At this point, I'd just as soon keep him a Red for his entire career.
Dean Travers06:45 PM EST