C. Trent

    Jocketty: No trade talk for Dunn yet

    Monday, June 9, 2008, 06:42 PM EST [Reds]

    Could this be Adam Dunn's final week in a Reds uniform?

    When the team exercised its option on the leftfielder this offseason, it triggered a full no-trade clause until June 15, when the clause changes to a limited no-trade clause, with Dunn being able to specify 10 teams to which he'd accept a trade.

    That list is usually written into the player's contract, said Reds general manager Walt Jocketty, so the Reds would already have that list. They could also persue a trade with teams not on the list and ask permission from Dunn, but that would be less likely to fly.

    However, even though Dunn's full no-trade clause expires on Sunday, there have been no trade discussions involving Dunn, Jocketty said Monday evening.

    "There have been no discussions," Jocketty said. "I usually don't comment on trade talks, but there's nothing here to comment on. Nothing's changed."

    Following the end of the 2007 season, the Reds exercised their $13 million option on Dunn that could be worth as much as $16 million based on incentives. Dunn would be a free agent following the 2008 season and the Reds would likely get two draft picks as compensation if he left for another team.

    There have been no discussions of an extension, either, Jocketty said.

    "I usually don't talk about contract extensions during the season because they're a big distraction," Jocketty said. "And from what I've heard, Adam feels the same way."

    A lightening rod for fans during his eight seasons in Cincinnati, Dunn is hitting .241 entering Monday night's game with a team-high 16 home runs and 41 RBIs. He has an on-base percentage of  .411 and slugging percentage of .535. He has struck out 59 times.

    Dunn's become almost a symbol of old-school baseball wisdom vs. new-school baseball metrics.

    Critics point to his high strikeout totals (even though he improved that rate last season and is striking out on an even lower clip this season), low batting average and perception that he "isn't clutch."

    Proponents point to a consistent production of runs and on-base percentage. He has had an OPS+ of more than 100 (which is average) in every season in the big leagues. Dunn and pitcher Edinson Volquez currently lead the Reds in win shares with 10.

    Dunn's hit at least 40 home runs in each of the last four seasons, while driving in more than 100 in three of those seasons, walking at least 100 times (and striking out at least 100 times) in each of those seasons and scoring at least 99 runs in each.

    According to Baseball Prospectus, before Monday's game, Dunn had a VORP of 19.0 -- which is the value over a replacement player, it measures the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP does not count defense, only runs scored on offense. Dunn's VORP is 32nd in baseball, better than any other Red.

    If the Reds do try to trade him, a natural move would be to the Boston Red Sox. While some teams are dismissive as such stats as OPS+ and VORP, the Red Sox employ Bill James and have openly embraced new theories while winning two of the last four World Series titles (also with the help of a large payroll.)

    The Red Sox will be without designated hitter David Ortiz for an extended period of time and could use a left-handed bat with power in the lineup. Moving to the American League would allow Dunn to DH, as something both his detractors and proponents can agree upon is that he is a below-average defensive outfielder. Of course, the Red Sox already employ an below-average defensive leftfielder in Manny Ramirez.

    It would be even easier because the Red Sox just happen to be in town on Sunday when his full no-trade clause expires.

    Will it happen? Doubtful, but if it doesn't, the debate will surely rage on.

    4 (1 Ratings)

    At this point, I'd just as soon keep him a Red for his entire career.

    Dean Travers
    June 09, 2008
    06:45 PM EST

    Trent -

    Care to take a SWAG at what teams Junior might accept a trade to, especially if they extended him? Would *he* be the ticket for the RedSox??**

    Seattle?

    A certain red-hot Florida team near his home?

    TIA!

    ** I always suspect that when rumors lleak about one player, it's probably a different guy in play, LOL

    DrOptimism
    June 09, 2008
    07:45 PM EST

    Really like the information you are able to dig up. Keep it coming.

    jeff
    June 09, 2008
    08:21 PM EST