C. Trent

    Thinking out loud 7.21

    Monday, July 21, 2008, 09:10 AM EST [General]

     Yeah, I'm gonna go there again.

    The Reds need to keep Adam Dunn -- and they won't.

    Again and again and again I hear from people who should know better bashing Dunn because he has a low average.

    Again and again and again I hear people talk about Dunn being lazy or "the worst defensive player" ever.

    Again and again and again I hear about so many strikeouts.

    Adam Dunn is one of the most productive players in the game and certainly on the Reds -- he leads the team's regulars with a .387 OBP, he's slugging .550, he has 28 home runs, the second-most in baseball, his 63 RBI are a testament not to his skills, but the OBP of those ahead of him in the order, his home run rate of a homer per every 10.7 at-bats is the best in baseball, his 52 runs scored are the second-most on the team. And here's the biggest one, the bomb I've hinted at. He's playing an above average left field.

     Dunn is second in the National League in putouts by an leftfielder (fourth in the bigs) he's also fifth in the majors in John Dewan's Revised Zone Ratings, the best fielding matric out there.

    Again and again and again I hear that he's not worth X% of the team's payroll, which is a completely flawed argument because there is no salary cap in baseball. Should the Reds go out and pay Edinson Volquez more out of the goodness of their hearts just so Dunn's percentage of payroll goes down?

    Bob Castellini isn't putting a cap on his salary, he wants a winner. He's the one paying the checks, you aren't, so why are you worried about what percentage of the payroll Adam Dunn occupies? What you want is the most productive outfielder you can get. And that, ladies and gentlemen is Adam Dunn.

    You don't think so?

    How about this free agent market for outfielders (from Cot's Baseball Contracts:

    Bobby Abreu NYY
    Moises Alou NYM
    Garret Anderson * LAA
    Rocco Baldelli TB
    Willie Bloomquist SEA
    Emil Brown OAK
    Pat Burrell PHI
    Endy Chavez NYM
    Carl Crawford * TB
    Adam Dunn CIN
    Jim Edmonds CHC
    Juan Encarnacion STL
    Cliff Floyd TB
    Brian Giles * SD
    Ken Griffey Jr. * CIN
    Vladimir Guerrero * LAA
    Raul Ibanez SEA
    Jacque Jones DET
    Mark Kotsay ATL
    Rob Mackowiak WAS
    Kevin Mench TEX
    Jason Michaels * CLE
    Craig Monroe MIN
    Jay Payton BAL
    Scott Podsednik COL
    Manny Ramirez * BOS
    Juan Rivera LAA
    Rondell White MIN

    Manny Ramirez and Carl Crawford are the only two there I'd look at as being even mentioned in the same class as Dunn. Ramirez is seven-and-a-half years older than Dunn and makes a bit more. Crawford is a different type of player and having, for him, a down year.

    But yeah, go ahead, let him go. That makes sense. Don't replace that value for a team that has enough trouble creating runs by taking away the leader of your club in runs created -- more than seven runs created than the next player on the roster.

    Sure enough, I guess most will be excited to see Dunn walk after this year. You won't be when he comes in as a visitor and only then will you realize what you're missing out on.

     

    * Juan Castro is an Oriole.

    * Great stuff here from ESPN's Paul Lukas who does UniWatch. This one is about the "Turn Ahead the Clock" uniforms MLB had in 1998 and 1999. Just awful. I asked Rob Butcher if the Reds participated, he said he didn't remember them and to ask Rick Stowe. I didn't see Rick after the game, so I hope to talk to him today. Here's a good look at those badboys from 99. Awful.

    * Seriously, I'm in complete awe of Joe Posnanski. He's just the best. And here he writes about my favorite player that retired long before I was born. So good. I love the pitchers quotes -- I've heard 'em before, but they're always good.

    * Jeff Passan looks at the contenders. And the Marlins.

    * This would be kind cool, and kinda creepy.

    * Kerry Wood may be headed to the DL.

    * Chad Johnson is doing an online chat with ESPN today -- I'm wondering if he works more for ESPN or the Bengals. I hope ESPN is giving him lotsof money -- or else Drew Rosenhaus is just getting the exposure and using it for his own evil ways.

    * Gotta tip the cap to T.O.

    * It's beginning to be that time of year -- college media days are kicking off. I was there when Mike Shula was in his first year as the Alabama coach, I can't imagine what it was like for Saban. With Shula it was kinda like Paul McCartney was there. With Saban it must have been like John Lennon.

    * Just because, here are some Knowshon highlights. Can't wait.

     

     

     

     

     * I hate to be the typical American soccer-bashing sportswriter -- I like soccer, I really do. I was wearing a Man U jersey just last night. I get it, I enjoy it. But man, they just make it too easy for the soccer bashers sometimes.

    * Zack and Miri get an NC-17.

    * There are no Cincinnati Starbucks on the closure list.

    * Well, it just wouldn't be 90210 without her, would it?

    * Add Hendrix to the Guitar Hero World Tour list.

    0 (0 Ratings)

    Trent,

    I absolutely agree with you on Adam Dunn. Makes zero sense to let him walk, trade him, whatever. There is noway we can replace his offense. He is good in the clubhouse, puts fannies in the seats, and plays a decent left field. Can't play a ball hit directly over his head very well, other than that, pretty darn good(as left field sluggers go).

    My theory, which is worth nothing, Griff is gone, one way or another for next year. If Votto can play OF a lick, put him there, bring EE to first(great hands and instincts, eliminates almost all throws), let Keepp. play third, Hairston/Gonzo SS, and we have a pretty good lineup. Our pitching staff seems to be gradually taking care of itself. Just need a little more experience, which they are getting.

    A team with Arroyo, Cueto, and Fogg 3,4 and 5 is not a bad rotation.

    GeneWV
    July 21, 2008
    09:33 AM EST

    So Trent, do you have a strong feeling that the Reds will let him walk? I'm not convinced yet. We know Castellini loves him, and we also know Jocketty doesn't like negotiating contracts mid season. I've been torn about him the last year, and I'm still not sure he'd be worth 15 mil a year for the next 3-4 years, but I'm still hopeful they'll be able to work something out.......should I abandon that hope?

    Geoff
    July 21, 2008
    10:07 AM EST

    MLS fans try so hard to be like EPL fans. I'm a big fan of soccer but I think the U.S. fans need their own identity.


    Phill
    July 21, 2008
    10:57 AM EST

    The funny thing is that all of the people that want Dunn gone have no answer as to how to fill that hole in the lineup. Proves the point that most fans are idiots!!!!

    John
    July 21, 2008
    11:00 AM EST

    I am definitely on the "resign Adam Dunn" bandwagon. In addition to being an outstanding baseball player, I rather like his low-key personality and sense of humor (now that's a reason to resign him for sure). He may not drive in a run every game, but when he gets on tear, the Reds start putting together winning streaks. What he needs is some supporting teammates to get on base before he bats (some of them need to learn his art of "clogging the bases", e.g. BP). For his output, I don't feel $15M is out of line (ducking here)

    Mary
    July 21, 2008
    11:23 AM EST
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