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    Reds' off-season could be interesting

    Tuesday, September 30, 2008, 12:22 PM EST [Reds]

    For Walt Jocketty, his first off-season as the Reds' general manager is different than any of his predecessors' winters, instead of focusing on pitching, Jocketty has to feel good about the rotation the previous general managers left him.

    With four spots pretty much secured in the rotation -- Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto -- the battle for the fifth spot will be interesting. Among those battling for that spot will be Micah Owings, Bobby Livingston, Daryl Thompson, Homer Bailey, Matt Maloney and Ramon Ramirez.

    That's the makings of not only a solid rotation, but something just as important -- depth. With starters -- especially young arms like Volquez and Cueto, as well as someone like Harang coming off a year with new injuries -- you don't want to feel overconfident about pitching depth.

    That said, to get what Jocketty is looking for most, right-handed power, it's going to take pitching. To get something, you have to give up something. We saw that last winter when Wayne Krivsky gave up the most talented position player in the game, Josh Hamilton, to get Edinson Volquez. The other moral of that story is people will overpay for pitching, something the Reds finally have.

    Bailey is the name most will want traded, but his stock is at its low point now. Don't expect the Reds to get an offer for equal value this off-season. A trade last off-season would have been perfect, but this off-season would be at a discount that's not worth the return for the talent he has.

    So, what do the Reds need?

    1. Right-handed bat. This could come from right field, or center field. The team needs more power from the right side, but I don't buy into splitting up the lefties as much as others. I have no problem with Jay Bruce and Joey Votto hitting third and fourth for years to come. Votto's versatility makes it more important -- his avg./obp/slg against lefties and righties wasn’t different enough to make a difference. Against right-handed pitchers, his line was .299/.370/.510. Against lefties, it was .292/.365/.497.  (Bruce’s splits were much more dramatic -- .286/.340/.529 against right-handers, .190/.263/.299 against lefties, but he's still young enough to expect improvement.)

    Right field seems to be the logical place to look, but if you didn't like Adam Dunn, you'll hate Pat Burrell. And if you did like Adam Dunn, you'll see Burrell as a similar -- but with just a tick fewer home runs, strike outs and walks. So he's not as good of a hitter as Dunn and just as bad defensively. Why go for Burrell when you let a similar, but better, player go? Adrian Beltre or Matt Holliday would be intriguing trade possibilities -- the former easier to get than the latter -- but would cost a bit of that pitching.

    2. Centerfielder. Did Chris Dickerson do enough to win that job? If I'm the manager, I'd certainly make him earn it. Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper are also back from injury, but if they weren't good enough options last off-season, what have they done to improve their stock after missing most of 2008 with injuries? Jerry Hairston Jr. is a free agent. He, like Freel, is a valuable utility player that can play center, but not an everyday centerfielder. The bad news? Perhaps the best defensive centerfielder available on the market is Corey Patterson. By all accounts, Drew Stubbs is the best defensive outfielder in the Reds' system (including Cincinnati) but can his bat keep him afloat at the big league level? With an outfield of Dickerson, Stubbs and Bruce, are you confident enough with that to go through a season? I'm not.

    3. Shortstop. Alex Gonzalez is in the last year of his contract, and even the most optimistic of observers wouldn't put him as a long-term solution. His injury history while wearing a Reds uniform makes his short-term status just as iffy. Jeff Keppinger is a valuable player, but doesn't have the range to help out a pitching staff that needs to keep the ball on the ground and have its infield make plays. Brandon Phillips came up through the minors as a shortstop, and while he's been the team's strongest defensive player, he took a step back in 2008 and doesn't seem to be the answer at short. The team needs a drastic improvement defensively in the infield, and that's not going to come from a converted second baseman (even if he was converted to second from short.) The bat isn't as important as the glove here, as the Reds were one of the worst defensive teams in baseball in 2008.

    4. Bullpen help. The Reds' bullpen was greatly improved in 2008. However, three of the big reasons why -- David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt and Mike Lincoln are free agents. Weathers and Lincoln could be resigned, Affeldt probably won’t be. Another left-hander will be needed to go along with Bill Bray.

    5. Catcher. Ryan Hanigan played well when he came up, and baring any great trade offers, looks as if he'll be the starter in 2009, with a backup needed to replace free agents Paul Bako and Javier Valentin.

    6. Make a decision about Edwin Encarnacion. His talent is impressive, but his production is just not consistent enough to head into 2009 with him as the every day third baseman. He's still young (he's a couple of months older than Votto) but he's played a bit and is arbitration eligible this off-season. If he could be switched to the outfield or first base it wouldn't hurt the team as much defensively. There's talent there, but the why to utilize it is difficult. Expect him to be back for 2009, but in what capacity?

    7. Make difficult choices with redundant parts:
    Hairston is a free agent. He's may be more expensive than Freel, who is already under contract. How much did Keppinger's injury cause his second-half decline? After his broken knee cap, he wasn’t the same player. Along with Freel and Hairston, he appears to be a man without a position. Jolbert Cabrera and Andy Phillips are arbitration eligible, but don't expect them to be offered to them.

    The biggest problem with all this is that the free agent market is rich in certain areas, but poor in others, namely center field, shortstop and catcher -- the three positions the Reds need the most.

    0 (0 Ratings)

    Which would you take?

    Rockies sign Holliday to a sign and trade for 16 mil/yr for 4 years and we send Bailey, Burton and 1 or 2 other minor leaguers.

    or

    Beltre at 12 mil/yr for Bray, Bailey, and a minor league player.

    If Beltre, what do you do with EE? Move him to left field or include in one of the above trades?

    ohioredsfan1
    September 30, 2008
    01:49 PM EST

    Include EE in any trade. One thing you are told when you start playing any sport. Defense wins championships, and that is one of the biggest flaws to EE and the reds as a whole.
    WE NEED THE "D"!

    Brian
    September 30, 2008
    02:08 PM EST

    Edwin has almost identical numbers as Beltre so I don't know why the Reds would trade for him?

    Goetta
    September 30, 2008
    02:23 PM EST

    When I was looking at Beltre's numbers, Goetta, I was thinking the same thing. Other than maybe a better defensive player, I don't see advantage to Beltre over EE. Also if EE is in left maybe those "long" throws from 3rd to first become "good " throws that are on target. Guess it does not hurt to wonder.

    ohioredsfan1
    September 30, 2008
    02:43 PM EST

    Why so down on EE? Compare his numbers around the NL and tell me he isn't in the top-3 of third-baseman under 30. Way too young and talented to give up on him. Plus, do you watch the games? He has amazing range at the hot corner. His errors come on routine throws, which I suspect will correct themselves with more experience. It's much harder to improve on range and athletic ability.
    Who else do you want at third base who won't cost a fortune? We need to worry about our holes before we can worry about installing all-stars at every position. I wouldn't worry about the 2nd highest OPS on the team until the end of next season at the earliest.

    wanderin
    September 30, 2008
    05:38 PM EST
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