For Walt Jocketty, his first off-season as the Reds' general manager is
different than any of his predecessors' winters, instead of focusing on
pitching, Jocketty has to feel good about the rotation the previous
general managers left him.
With four spots pretty much secured
in the rotation -- Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and
Johnny Cueto -- the battle for the fifth spot will be interesting.
Among those battling for that spot will be Micah Owings, Bobby
Livingston, Daryl Thompson, Homer Bailey, Matt Maloney and Ramon
Ramirez.
That's the makings of not only a solid rotation, but
something just as important -- depth. With starters -- especially young
arms like Volquez and Cueto, as well as someone like Harang coming off
a year with new injuries -- you don't want to feel overconfident about
pitching depth.
That said, to get what Jocketty is looking for
most, right-handed power, it's going to take pitching. To get
something, you have to give up something. We saw that last winter when
Wayne Krivsky gave up the most talented position player in the game,
Josh Hamilton, to get Edinson Volquez. The other moral of that story is
people will overpay for pitching, something the Reds finally have.
Bailey
is the name most will want traded, but his stock is at its low point
now. Don't expect the Reds to get an offer for equal value this
off-season. A trade last off-season would have been perfect, but this
off-season would be at a discount that's not worth the return for the
talent he has.
So, what do the Reds need?
1. Right-handed bat. This could come from right field, or center field. The team needs more
power from the right side, but I don't buy into splitting up the
lefties as much as others. I have no problem with Jay Bruce and Joey
Votto hitting third and fourth for years to come. Votto's versatility
makes it more important -- his avg./obp/slg against lefties and
righties wasn’t different enough to make a difference. Against
right-handed pitchers, his line was .299/.370/.510. Against lefties, it
was .292/.365/.497. (Bruce’s splits were much more dramatic --
.286/.340/.529 against right-handers, .190/.263/.299 against lefties,
but he's still young enough to expect improvement.)
Right
field seems to be the logical place to look, but if you didn't like
Adam Dunn, you'll hate Pat Burrell. And if you did like Adam Dunn,
you'll see Burrell as a similar -- but with just a tick fewer home
runs, strike outs and walks. So he's not as good of a hitter as Dunn
and just as bad defensively. Why go for Burrell when you let a similar,
but better, player go? Adrian Beltre or Matt Holliday would be
intriguing trade possibilities -- the former easier to get than the
latter -- but would cost a bit of that pitching.
2. Centerfielder. Did Chris Dickerson do enough to win that job? If I'm the manager, I'd
certainly make him earn it. Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper are also back
from injury, but if they weren't good enough options last off-season,
what have they done to improve their stock after missing most of 2008
with injuries? Jerry Hairston Jr. is a free agent. He, like Freel, is a
valuable utility player that can play center, but not an everyday
centerfielder. The bad news? Perhaps the best defensive centerfielder
available on the market is Corey Patterson. By all accounts, Drew
Stubbs is the best defensive outfielder in the Reds' system (including
Cincinnati) but can his bat keep him afloat at the big league level?
With an outfield of Dickerson, Stubbs and Bruce, are you confident
enough with that to go through a season? I'm not.
3. Shortstop. Alex Gonzalez is in the last year of his contract, and even the most
optimistic of observers wouldn't put him as a long-term solution. His
injury history while wearing a Reds uniform makes his short-term status
just as iffy. Jeff Keppinger is a valuable player, but doesn't have the
range to help out a pitching staff that needs to keep the ball on the
ground and have its infield make plays. Brandon Phillips came up
through the minors as a shortstop, and while he's been the team's
strongest defensive player, he took a step back in 2008 and doesn't
seem to be the answer at short. The team needs a drastic improvement
defensively in the infield, and that's not going to come from a
converted second baseman (even if he was converted to second from
short.) The bat isn't as important as the glove here, as the Reds were
one of the worst defensive teams in baseball in 2008.
4. Bullpen help. The
Reds' bullpen was greatly improved in 2008. However, three of the big
reasons why -- David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt and Mike Lincoln are free
agents. Weathers and Lincoln could be resigned, Affeldt probably won’t
be. Another left-hander will be needed to go along with Bill Bray.
5. Catcher. Ryan
Hanigan played well when he came up, and baring any great trade offers,
looks as if he'll be the starter in 2009, with a backup needed to
replace free agents Paul Bako and Javier Valentin.
6. Make a decision about Edwin Encarnacion.
His talent is impressive, but his production is just not consistent
enough to head into 2009 with him as the every day third baseman. He's
still young (he's a couple of months older than Votto) but he's played
a bit and is arbitration eligible this off-season. If he could be
switched to the outfield or first base it wouldn't hurt the team as
much defensively. There's talent there, but the why to utilize it is
difficult. Expect him to be back for 2009, but in what capacity?
7. Make difficult choices with redundant parts: Hairston is a free agent. He's may be more expensive than Freel, who is
already under contract. How much did Keppinger's injury cause his
second-half decline? After his broken knee cap, he wasn’t the same
player. Along with Freel and Hairston, he appears to be a man without a
position. Jolbert Cabrera and Andy Phillips are arbitration eligible,
but don't expect them to be offered to them.
The biggest problem
with all this is that the free agent market is rich in certain areas,
but poor in others, namely center field, shortstop and catcher -- the
three positions the Reds need the most.
Reds' off-season could be interesting
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Include EE in any trade. One thing you are told when you start playing any sport. Defense wins championships, and that is one of the biggest flaws to EE and the reds as a whole. |
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Edwin has almost identical numbers as Beltre so I don't know why the Reds would trade for him? Goetta |
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When I was looking at Beltre's numbers, Goetta, I was thinking the same thing. Other than maybe a better defensive player, I don't see advantage to Beltre over EE. Also if EE is in left maybe those "long" throws from 3rd to first become "good " throws that are on target. Guess it does not hurt to wonder. ohioredsfan1 |
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Why so down on EE? Compare his numbers around the NL and tell me he isn't in the top-3 of third-baseman under 30. Way too young and talented to give up on him. Plus, do you watch the games? He has amazing range at the hot corner. His errors come on routine throws, which I suspect will correct themselves with more experience. It's much harder to improve on range and athletic ability. |


Which would you take?
ohioredsfan1Rockies sign Holliday to a sign and trade for 16 mil/yr for 4 years and we send Bailey, Burton and 1 or 2 other minor leaguers.
or
Beltre at 12 mil/yr for Bray, Bailey, and a minor league player.
If Beltre, what do you do with EE? Move him to left field or include in one of the above trades?
01:49 PM EST