1. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, age 24 2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins shortstop, age 24 3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants pitcher, age 24 4. David Wright, New York Mets third baseman, age 25 5. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder, age 24 6. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox second baseman, age 24 7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder, age 23 8. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels pitcher, age 26(ed. note, ????) 9. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop, age 25 10. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles right fielder, age 24 11. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals pitcher, age 24 12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals third baseman, age 23 13. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, age 24 14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies shortstop, age 23 15. Felix Hernandez, ! Seattle Mariners pitcher, age 22 16. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox pitcher, age 24 17. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman, age 22 18. John Danks, Chicago White Sox pitcher, age 23 19. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres first baseman, age 26 (again, ???) 20. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman, age 24 21. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop, age 25 22. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves catcher, age 24 23. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers first baseman, age 25 24. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians center fielder, age 25 25. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds first baseman, age 24
James also has the Reds as 15th among young talent currently on the big league roster:
1. Minnesota Twins 2. Arizona Diamondbacks 3. Tampa Bay Rays 4. Florida Marlins 5. Kansas City Royals 6. Milwaukee Brewers 7. Cleveland Indians 8. Colorado Rockies 9. Atlanta Braves 10. Boston Red Sox 11. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 12. Oakland A’s 13. Los Angeles Dodgers 14. St. Louis Cardinals 15. Cincinnati Reds 16. New York Mets 17. Pittsburgh Pirates 18. Seattle Mariners 19. Texas Rangers 20. Philadelphia Phillies 21. San Diego Padres 22. San Francisco Giants 23. Washington Nationals 24. Baltimore Orioles 25. Chicago White Sox 26. Chicago Cubs 27. Detroit Tigers 28. Toronto Blue Jays 29. New York Yankees 30. Houston Astros
This is what he has to say about the Reds:
“The Cardinals don’t really have any young studs, but they have a bunch of guys in their late twenties who are pretty decent. The Reds are the exact opposite of the Cardinals. They have four young lions that everybody would love to have (Votto, Volquez, Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto), but only two late-twenties guys who can really play (Edwin Encarnacion and Brandon Phillips). Chris Dickerson will make a splash in ’09, if he’s the player we think he is.”
I love the James handbooks every year, but I really liked his The Bill James Gold Mine 2009 last year as well. It had a lot of different stuff than the handbook. Both are must-reads.
For Walt Jocketty, his first off-season as the Reds' general manager is
different than any of his predecessors' winters, instead of focusing on
pitching, Jocketty has to feel good about the rotation the previous
general managers left him.
With four spots pretty much secured
in the rotation -- Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and
Johnny Cueto -- the battle for the fifth spot will be interesting.
Among those battling for that spot will be Micah Owings, Bobby
Livingston, Daryl Thompson, Homer Bailey, Matt Maloney and Ramon
Ramirez.
That's the makings of not only a solid rotation, but
something just as important -- depth. With starters -- especially young
arms like Volquez and Cueto, as well as someone like Harang coming off
a year with new injuries -- you don't want to feel overconfident about
pitching depth.
That said, to get what Jocketty is looking for
most, right-handed power, it's going to take pitching. To get
something, you have to give up something. We saw that last winter when
Wayne Krivsky gave up the most talented position player in the game,
Josh Hamilton, to get Edinson Volquez. The other moral of that story is
people will overpay for pitching, something the Reds finally have.
Bailey
is the name most will want traded, but his stock is at its low point
now. Don't expect the Reds to get an offer for equal value this
off-season. A trade last off-season would have been perfect, but this
off-season would be at a discount that's not worth the return for the
talent he has.
So, what do the Reds need?
1. Right-handed bat. This could come from right field, or center field. The team needs more
power from the right side, but I don't buy into splitting up the
lefties as much as others. I have no problem with Jay Bruce and Joey
Votto hitting third and fourth for years to come. Votto's versatility
makes it more important -- his avg./obp/slg against lefties and
righties wasn’t different enough to make a difference. Against
right-handed pitchers, his line was .299/.370/.510. Against lefties, it
was .292/.365/.497. (Bruce’s splits were much more dramatic --
.286/.340/.529 against right-handers, .190/.263/.299 against lefties,
but he's still young enough to expect improvement.)
Right
field seems to be the logical place to look, but if you didn't like
Adam Dunn, you'll hate Pat Burrell. And if you did like Adam Dunn,
you'll see Burrell as a similar -- but with just a tick fewer home
runs, strike outs and walks. So he's not as good of a hitter as Dunn
and just as bad defensively. Why go for Burrell when you let a similar,
but better, player go? Adrian Beltre or Matt Holliday would be
intriguing trade possibilities -- the former easier to get than the
latter -- but would cost a bit of that pitching.
2. Centerfielder. Did Chris Dickerson do enough to win that job? If I'm the manager, I'd
certainly make him earn it. Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper are also back
from injury, but if they weren't good enough options last off-season,
what have they done to improve their stock after missing most of 2008
with injuries? Jerry Hairston Jr. is a free agent. He, like Freel, is a
valuable utility player that can play center, but not an everyday
centerfielder. The bad news? Perhaps the best defensive centerfielder
available on the market is Corey Patterson. By all accounts, Drew
Stubbs is the best defensive outfielder in the Reds' system (including
Cincinnati) but can his bat keep him afloat at the big league level?
With an outfield of Dickerson, Stubbs and Bruce, are you confident
enough with that to go through a season? I'm not.
3. Shortstop. Alex Gonzalez is in the last year of his contract, and even the most
optimistic of observers wouldn't put him as a long-term solution. His
injury history while wearing a Reds uniform makes his short-term status
just as iffy. Jeff Keppinger is a valuable player, but doesn't have the
range to help out a pitching staff that needs to keep the ball on the
ground and have its infield make plays. Brandon Phillips came up
through the minors as a shortstop, and while he's been the team's
strongest defensive player, he took a step back in 2008 and doesn't
seem to be the answer at short. The team needs a drastic improvement
defensively in the infield, and that's not going to come from a
converted second baseman (even if he was converted to second from
short.) The bat isn't as important as the glove here, as the Reds were
one of the worst defensive teams in baseball in 2008.
4. Bullpen help. The
Reds' bullpen was greatly improved in 2008. However, three of the big
reasons why -- David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt and Mike Lincoln are free
agents. Weathers and Lincoln could be resigned, Affeldt probably won’t
be. Another left-hander will be needed to go along with Bill Bray.
5. Catcher. Ryan
Hanigan played well when he came up, and baring any great trade offers,
looks as if he'll be the starter in 2009, with a backup needed to
replace free agents Paul Bako and Javier Valentin.
6. Make a decision about Edwin Encarnacion.
His talent is impressive, but his production is just not consistent
enough to head into 2009 with him as the every day third baseman. He's
still young (he's a couple of months older than Votto) but he's played
a bit and is arbitration eligible this off-season. If he could be
switched to the outfield or first base it wouldn't hurt the team as
much defensively. There's talent there, but the why to utilize it is
difficult. Expect him to be back for 2009, but in what capacity? 7. Make difficult choices with redundant parts: Hairston is a free agent. He's may be more expensive than Freel, who is
already under contract. How much did Keppinger's injury cause his
second-half decline? After his broken knee cap, he wasn’t the same
player. Along with Freel and Hairston, he appears to be a man without a
position. Jolbert Cabrera and Andy Phillips are arbitration eligible,
but don't expect them to be offered to them.
The biggest problem
with all this is that the free agent market is rich in certain areas,
but poor in others, namely center field, shortstop and catcher -- the
three positions the Reds need the most.
RHP Francisco Cordero has returned to Cincinnati and later today was expected to have arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone spur from his right foot...the surgery was to have been performed by Reds medical director Dr. Timothy Kremchek.
RHP Edinson Volquez also has returned home for an examination...he has been bothered by tendinitis in his left knee.
OF Chris Dickerson earlier today was scheduled to have surgery to remove a small piece of bone in his left ankle (Kremchek).
The Lookouts had been the Class AA affiliate of the Reds for the last 21 years.
The Lookouts owner said he wasn't happy about the way the Reds' top prospects seemed to zoom right through Chattanooga -- Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs had just cups of coffee with the Lookouts while going through the system.
It looks like the two possibilities are Carolina (in Zebulon, N.C.) and Connecticut (in Norwich, Conn.) as possibilities for the new Reds Class AA affiliate. Carolina is in the Southern League, Connecticut is in the Eastern League. The Southern League has better weather, the Eastern League would likely be better for travel.
What really bothers me is that the Lookouts will change thier uniforms to correspond with the Dodgers. That's just not right.
