DontGiveARats

    Why the offense stinks

    Wednesday, July 30, 2008, 10:00 AM EST [General]

     Reds offense has a very bad habit of making bad pitchers look good (Moehler, Eaton, Myers and on and on and on.  They can't put a rally together to save their lives, even against bad pitchers.

    Why?

    Because they have 6 guys on a daily basis in the lineup with bad on-base percentage.   The opposite of OBP is outs.  If your OBP is .323 like Brandon Phillips', your out percentage is .677 or 2 out of every 3.  How can a team filled with guys who make a lot of outs, start or even sustain a rally?

    Here are the culprits.

    Edwin             .344
    Votto                .338
    Keppinger      .329
    Phillips            .323
    Bruce               .318
    Bako                 .294 (still playing with Ross's .394???????????)
    Patterson         .216 (still leading off for some reason????????????) 

    I'll give Votto and Bruce some leeway since they're rookies.  The rest need to either figure out how to be more selective or get out of town. 

    Until, Jocketty wakes up and gets some guys in who get on base, either by lots of hits or lots of walks or both, things will not improve.  Nobody can sustain a rally with these guys.  None of them are proven producers yet.

    0 (0 Ratings)

    Nice analysis, I agree this is another one of the many problems on this team. The sad thing is that everyone on your list, excpet Patterson and Bako will most likely be here for a LONG time.

    I know I'll get ripped for it, but even though Dunn and Griffey have good OBP, don't you think their salaries prevent us being able to go out and get guys that are better at getting on base. That's why I've wondered why some say we have to replace Dunn's HRs, what if we just have a lot of above average guys at getting on base. I was watching the Cubs last night, and they had like 8 hits in a row, and none were HRs. Couldn't we have a team of guys that get on base and hit in the clutch??? Spread the money out on the offense and get guys in the Phillips range ($3-5M) of pay. Instead of spending on sluggers, spend that money on pitching. Rip away Dunn lovers!

    Marc
    July 30, 2008
    10:16 AM EST

    Well the main problem is that Dunn is the best on the team at getting on base, so like you said, you're keeping the guys who don't and getting rid of the one who does. Will his salary buy you two players who are good at it? Not likely from what's available. We don't even know if that's our GMs philosophy. The solution is to surround Dunn with hitters who do get on base so he can knock them in. His RBI per chance with men on is up there with Hamilton and Howard. For every guy he doesn't bring home from second, he brings a guy home from first or home with a bomb.

    DontGiveARats
    July 30, 2008
    10:53 AM EST

    Really, for every guy Dunn leaves at 2nd, he drives one in from home or 1st? I'm not sure the stats support that. But I'm not trying to hijack this blog with Dunn discussion. Here's to hoping we have a much better team next year, but if I were betting on it, I'd take the we're not going anywhere next year either bet. I hope I'm wrong, but at least our GM is giving moral support to our team in a time of crisis, rather than demanding better performance or holding people accountable....

    Marc
    July 30, 2008
    11:00 AM EST

    When you looka at where the Reds are weakest it is in the top of the order for OBP. They are in the bottom third in the 1 through 4 spots in the order in the majors in OBP. That being said when you are that poor at the top of the order how can you expect to win games. FYI- Dunn leads the majors at the number 5 spot.


    What is interesting when you compare the Cubs as you did. The biggest diffrence in the teams is not in the HR, strike outs, or walks. The biggest diffrence in the two teams is that the Cubs just hit so much better. The Cubs are 3rd in hits to the reds 26th. All of the other factors in OBP are pretty much equal. The bottom line is that the Reds cannot hit!

    John
    July 30, 2008
    11:04 AM EST

    If you took Dunn's production out of the Reds lineup, they would currently have a team obp of .314, 2nd to last in the majors, right behind San Diego and just ahead of Washington. With a Dunn trade, that number could go down if an immediate MLB OF is not received, as CP would get the majority of the PT. And there is now a chance Dunn could get traded today, a few teams have now been reported as inquiring in the last couple of hours.

    Grizzlyfox
    July 30, 2008
    01:50 PM EST

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