There’s been mumbling and grumbling about Dusty Baker since the day he was hired (Oct. 14, 2007, actually) to manage the Reds. Now, with the team backsliding and blood-thirsty fans looking for a new scapegoat since Junior Griffey was dispatched to the White Sox, the rumbling is starting to rise:

Will Dusty be fired?

There’s a new general manager in Uncle Walt Jocketty, who is expected to make changes in the front office, scouting and development departments, and likely the coaching staff. The team has underperformed to expectations while young established starters Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips and Aaron Harang have regressed. The team plays awful fundamental baseball. And there are the usual head-scratching moments of Dusty in-game decisions and stubborn lineup permeations.

Additionally, we all know Uncle Walt has owner Bob Castellini’s trust and ear, and few really know what Jocketty thinks of Baker and the job he has done this year.

On the flip side, this is former GM Wayne Krivsky’s roster, not Baker’s, and the team has been decimated by injuries, inconsistency and a brutal first-half schedule. Baker has also bucked the Cubs stigma that he ruins arms and prefers veterans by giving youngsters Encarnacion, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto and Jared Burton a lot of playing time—and rope. We’ve also seen improvement from Bronson Arroyo’s pitching and Adam Dunn’s defense.

There’s also the issue of Baker being due $7 million over the next two years—no small consideration, or amount of cake.

And there’s the important need and perception of finding some stability in the front office and manager’s position. Jocketty is the fifth GM in five years; Baker is the fifth manager in that time.

So what happens? Just because you—the fan—may or may not like Baker is not the debate. What’s up for objective observation and discussion is whether Dusty will be fired, and whether he should be fired. What say you?

The Reds return home from yet another losing roadtrip, facing a stretch of the schedule that is some way, somehow more difficult than what they’ve played thus far. For years I have wondered how in the name of Abner Doubleday Major League Baseball drafts the schedule, and the most consistent answer has been “a computer.”

As we all know, computers aren’t stupid, it’s the people behind the keyboards, evidenced by the Reds having played 36 road games, second only to Houston’s 37. The Reds have been away for two trips of nine games, two of seven games and on two swings to the West Coast. Don’t look now but another nine-game trip is coming at the Yankees, Toronto and Cleveland.

It’s a tired, worn-down team with a pitching rotation struggling to get into the sixth inning and an offense with all the consistency of soft ice cream. The miracle is the Reds are just three games under .500; but does anyone really believe they are playing like a last-place team in the division? Doesn’t seem so, even with a pitiful road record.

Now the Reds face a growing nemesis that has ruined uh-many-ah fine summer in recent years—the June Swoon (click on the chart at right to enlarge). Since 2000, the Reds have lost a combined 27 games in the standings in June alone. Four times they have been in first or second place on June 1, but only once did they gain ground.

Now, with a 4-5 record in the month and playing the Cardinals, Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays and Indians the next three weeks, the Reds could be facing a fire sale by July 1. (Hey, dope, that would require the Reds to have commodities worthy of a fire sale.)

Injuries, ineffectiveness and typical June fatigue are setting in. The warm weather has actually been brutally hot for the Reds’ month-opening trips to Philadelphia and Florida. The Reds don’t have the bench depth to compensate. The slumps are widespread, the concern for starting pitching growing, and a lot of hearts wondering if pending free agents Adam Dunn and Junior Griffey will be dealt. Now that the amateur draft is over, can we expect GM Walt Jocketty to start reshaping the 40-man roster in his own image?

One thing is for sure: June—and interleague games—has undone almost each Redlegs summer this decade. In 2000, they lost a whopping eight games in the standings to the Cardinals in great part by losing five straight to the White Sox and Indians. In 2002 and ’04 and sitting in first place on June 1, the Reds were ultimately exposed, respectively, by a five-game skid to the Mariners and Athletics and a six-game skid to the Indians and Athletics.

Of course, no one knows if the June Swoon is fact or fiction, but there seems to be a lot of teams cancelled out of the playoff races this month. The Giants made a long habit of swooning shortly after moving to San Francisco in 1958, and once the Cubs had a few swoons of their own, especially a big one in 1995, keen baseball observers have pointed an eye toward the month as one of make ‘em, break ‘em.

According to meteorologists, June is the month when weather officially breaks because the rotation and axis of earth puts most of North America more directly toward the sun. That’s why we get longer days and more heat, thus the beginning of rainstorm, tornado and hurricane seasons. The residual air mass changes cause baseballs to fly out of parks, creating the so-called “warm-weather hitters.”

Notice that home plate of most parks face southeast. That’s because you don’t want the westernly sun in the batter’s eyes for the majority of a night game. But in June, the prevailing northern jet streams shift southward out of Canada. When that stream gets caught in a fairly enclosed stadium such as Riverfront or Great American Ball Park, pitcher beware!

Over the years Midwestern teams—in the direct line of the jet stream—seem to be more affected by the June Swoon. Of course, bad luck plays a part. Lets say you are the Reds of the 2000s, Braves of 1970s and White Sox of the 1960s and your pitching staffs were not of caliber. With the onset of summer’s humid dog days and the first dead-arm period since spring training, there’s a confluence of factors (often called “hitters catching up to pitchers”) that can easily spell doom for a team in June.

For the Reds today, injuries have depleted positional players and there’s really no one else who can help from the minors. We’re also seeing manager Dusty Baker drive the starting eight pretty hard in recent weeks and there are worries young starters Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez could wear down from their early-season workload. While promising centerpieces of the near future, Cueto and Voltron are not giving the bullpen much help with their shortened high pitch-count outings.

Dare we watch? Oh, we all love a mystery. Once again it appears June will be a time that defines the Reds’ season. Recent history says so, and not very politely.

On the surface it appears the Reds had an alright day in the first six rounds of the amateur player draft, but beneath the surface the growing philosophical differences between some of former GM Wayne Krivsky's old staff and those who hope to stay with newer GM Walt Jocketty have begun to percolate.

The selection of University of Miami 1b Yonder Alonso was the first ripple as the Reds made college players five of their six selections, including two pitchers. In the press cafeteria at Nationals Park in Washington, a huddle of advance scouts was busy-bodying about the draft between games of a Nats-Cards doubleheader amid murmurs that Krivsky was close to landing a new job with either the Mets or Twins. Said an AL Central scout: "Wayne would not have had this draft [if he was with the Reds]."

Jocketty gave Reds director of scouting Chris Buckley and development chief Terry Reynolds great leeway in the draft and the belief among some scouts is Buckley was too heavy on college players, especially short-term relief pitchers, while the team didn't do enough to address organizational needs. The famous "best player available" didn't apply, according to my friend the NL West scout, because he doesn't believe Alonso is a frontline starter.



"He's strictly a first base/DH type who's probably a bat off the bench," the scout projected. Pressed further, including word that Alonso can play some third base or catch, the scout waved off the notion as "garbage."

The selection of Alonso isn't without curiosity. No one questions his ability to hit. An AL East scout countered by saying Alonso might be Edgar Martinez minus the .317 career batting average—hitting gaps, putting the ball in play, 30 homers. That's all very inviting, very encouraging. The Reds cleared a spot on the 40-man roster just prior to the draft, raising the possibility their selection would be demanding a major league contract with a stipulation for a September call-up to Cincinnati. Alonso reportedly is seeking an $8 million signing bonus . . . as the No. 7 pick. Yeah, good luck with that. One scout said Alonso was likely just two years from the big leagues.

But with rookies in 1b Joey Votto and OF Jay Bruce looking like the real deals, where in the near future do the Reds have room for yet another middle-of-the-order left-handed bat? Especially if they intend to re-sign Adam Dunn? Maybe that's the catch. Maybe the selection of Alonso means the exit of Dunn with Votto moving to left field. Some also wonder if Alonso or Votto will be trade bait in the near future because a lefty lineup of Bruce batting 3rd, Alonso cleanup, Dunn No. 5 and Votto 2 or 6 isn't happening.

Said Buckley of Alonso: "He may just be a first baseman, but we think he is an outstanding defensive first baseman. He is a big, mature guy. He is a very good first baseman."

Translation: Votto to the outfield if Alonso arrives to the big leagues. 

Not so fast, said another source, who believes owner Bob Castellini sincerely wants Dunn signed long term. Then why waste a pick on a left-handed, position-limited bat such as Alonso when switch-hitting, better-gloved Justin Smoak of the University of South Carolina was there until the 12^th pick to Texas? Or what about RHP Aaron Crow of Missouri, who might be ready for the majors next year? Many draft experts expected the Reds to take University of Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham, who was quickly taken by the White Sox after the Reds passed.

Another issue with yesterday's picks is the Reds still haven't addressed their catching depth issues in the minors (or majors, for that matter). The selection of Delaware shortstop Alexander Buchholz in the sixth round caused the AL East scout to say "utility infielder." 

All of this re-routes to Buckley's scouting strengths and draft preferences. Most baseball people know Buckley has a sharp eye for hitters. Pitchers? Not so much. The Reds have solid reliever depth in the minors and the selection of Texas Tech reliever Zachary Stewart and N.C. State starter Clayton Shunick, who one scout projects a reliever, bypassed an organizational need—stockpiling young arms.

"The Reds have a solid group of short-term relievers close to the majors," said an NL East scout. "They probably should have followed [the Braves'] philosophy and drafted high school pitchers to build some depth in the lower parts of their system."

Buckley did select Georgia prep pitcher Tyler Cline, the 24th prospect in the state, in the fourth round. When that selection hit the boards, one scout said, "What are the Reds doing?"



Flashback: Do you remember the Reds' last Ty Cline? He was involved in the famous Elrod Hendricks phantom tag collision at the plate in Game 1 of the 1970 World Series. Cline hit a chopper in front of the plate, Bernie Carbo raced home from third. Hendricks fielded the ball then made a spinning, swiping tag attempt. He and umpire Ken Burkhardt became entangled, Hendricks tagged Carbo with the glove with the ball in his other hand, and Burkhardt, on his rump, called Carbo out. Sparky and Carbo went nuts and it became a blown call that changed the Series.

Anyway, the broader point is Uncle Walt hasn't made any changes to Krivsky's staff because he wanted no distractions leading up to the draft. But several team insiders say they expect the natural front office and scouting attrition shortly, especially if Krivsky can make some hires in his new job.

As for the draft, the gaggle of scouts loafing about Nationals Park Thursday between games agreed this isn't a very deep draft and there's no purpose in getting too worked up. Many like Alonso's bat but think he's an American League player and a bad fit for the Reds. And don't forget: As Trent Rosecrans points out on his blog, Uncle Walt has a long history of trading top-end prospects for proven Major League players. Could that be the thinking with this selection of Alonso? Best player available now, deal from strength later? Hmmmm.

Sometime in 2000, a fellow I know who works with musicians making CDs to benefit charities told me about Richard Smallwood. Who? Exactly, I said. But it turns out Richard is a legend, and his influence is so widespread and talent so immense that I was embarrassed having never heard (or hear of) a fellow Washingtonian who has played at the White House, Kennedy Center, been honored by the Smithsonian and is a Hall of Famer. The Gospel Hall of Fame.

Now, like many people today, I'm not overtly religious. And the music genres of Christian, gospel, gospel rock, contemporary Christian, etc. have all the acidic appeal of Wednesday night prayer meetings. So it was with some reservation that I attended a VIP taping for Richard's spectacular CD, “Persuaded—Live in D.C” at Jericho Ministries in Landover, Md. Backed by his multitalented 20-piece group of singers by the name of Vision, Richard put on a show like no other I've seen. You've heard of old-time Southern revivals? Imagine almost 10,000 in attendance among the pews and aisles, standing, clapping and screaming as Richard's emsemble tore down the house with the backing of a 40-piece orchestra.

This went on for five hours. I have attended only one concert that was better—Springsteen during "The River" tour.

I met Richard after the show and apologized to him. Apologized for having never heard of him, apologized for having never bought his music, apologized for just being a lousy sports muck. Richard took it in good humor and said, "Just spread The Word." I knew what he meant, but I'm here to spread the word of Richard Smallwood's music, and let you decide on The Word.

Today, Amazon.com notified me that Richard has a new compilation CD titled “Definitive Gospel Collection” that is typically brilliant in concept: it's Christian-oriented lullabies for kids. It's not for everyone but the release segues into spreading the broader word about Richard's awesome package of work.

His writing, composing and orchestration have been used by Whitney Houston, Boyz II Men, Destiny's Child, and so many more. You've heard his songs in film, TV and on stage. What you find in Richard's music is a depth of soul, blues, R&B, jazz and operatic that skews traditional gospel but still celebrates spirit. Check out the 5-star “Persuaded—Live in D.C,” particularly “Anthem of Praise,” ”Coronation,” ”It Is Well With My Soul,” “My Everything,” “Nothing Without You,” and, if you're “Persuaded”. . .

. . . Sample “Journey: Live in New York,” and Kim Burrell's “Journey,” Kelly Price's “Morning's Breaking,” Chaka Kahn's “Precious Is Your Name,” “We’ve Come Too Far,” by The Hawkins Family and more.

I have rarely told anyone about Richard Smallwood who didn't become a fan. Visit iTunes, Amazon.com and YouTube to sample some of his music. Perhaps you will become a fan, too.