Wednesday, December 31, 2008, 04:31 PM EST [General]
Took my boys to Redsfest earlier this month. They loved it, and Jay Bruce signed their hats. I refuse to get excited about the team this year - I'm tired of getting burned. I might have reason for greater hope if our starting rotation were a little more battle-tested and consistent.
Don't get me wrong - I think that Jocketty is going to get it done... but do we intend to contend with the arms we have? Edinson Volquez is going to be a stud, and Johnny Cueto will likely improve on a successful year. Aaron Harang has no place to go but up.
Are we going to round out the rotation with Bronson and Homer? Homer seems to be fighting his own head, and Bronson seems to get hot at the most irrelevant times during the season.
So my question is: can we go out and get some insurance on the free agent market? If the economy's in the tank, will some of the pitchers sign in the next month to make sure they're getting at least a piece of the smaller pie? Can we land one of those guys here?
Guys like Paul Byrd and Braden Looper come to mind. There are some big fish still out there, but I'm not sure that the Reds can pony up that kind of money. I also think that the big guys would never come here for fear that Great American Launch Pad would ruin their career stats.
Kenny Rogers said it best - "know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em."
With recent moves to send their marquis players packing, the Reds have finally done what I've been begging for them to do - bring up the Bats! We finally have a GM and ownership that have figured out that the model is broken and that it's time to bring up the kids and let them play.
Did you read C. Trent's blog about the Goon Squad? Whether or not these kids win games the rest of the season, they've brought a winning attitude up from Louisville. I hope it stays. Many of them realize that this is an audition, but some might just land on the Opening Day roster next spring.
The Tampa Bay Rays are getting it done with sound defense, good pitching, and an offense that finds ways to score runs. Look at their 25-man roster - no one is batting above .300! That suggests to me that guys are picking each other up. Is this year a statistical anomaly? Maybe. It doesn't change the fact that they're 27 games over .500 and in first place in the AL East.
Can't wait to see what comes off of Walt's clean drawing board.
I've been trying to digest the Griffey trade and have come to the realization that I'm happy for the guy, but I'm upset simply because the dream that started in 2000 is now officially over.
So where do the Reds go from here? Jocketty says we're going to continue to build depth, which, for me the average fan, means we're not going to get out of the NL dungeon for a few years. Take a look at the recent free agent list. I'm not optimistic.
After gathering in all the coverage yesterday, people seemed to think that we've done a great thing by dumping salary. We still have to split Griffey's $2 million buyout, and the biggie - you still owe the guy the deferred money. So does that come straight out of ownership's pocket, or is that included in payroll? If it's part of the annual payroll budget, those that couldn't stand Griffey's chunk of change in the annual budget are going to have fodder for whining on talk radio for years to come.
If you look at the average age of available starting pitching, the Reds would be foolish to sign any of them past a one year deal (assuming they would land one). There's not much in the way of quality center fielders that won't be tied to a team next year, so Jerry Hairston is looking like a lock. Hopefully he can continue to produce.
So do you stick with Keppinger at short? I think so. Sure, he's average defensively - but the possibility of him hitting .300 brings something the Reds haven't had for years - a guy who has the potential to consistently get on base. How many .300 hitters have we traded away for power (or nothing)? The first that comes to mind was a quiet guy named Todd Walker. He's a career .289 hitter who was solid defensively and gave you a quality at-bat. We traded him in 2002 when he was hitting .299 in 155 games. Who did we get in return? Josh Thigpen and Tony Blanco. Go figure.
Keep Keppinger.
Then there's Dunn. I've been a huge critic for a long time, but you can't argue with his offensive numbers. Think about his RBI output if we had guys who could consistently get on base. If he doesn't want to stay here, then I'm in favor of letting him go with no love lost. If he does stay, maybe this ownership can make good on the failed promises made to Griffey by the previous ownership by putting a team around him.
The Rays and Marlins are doing it with the two lowest payrolls in baseball - the Marlins at around $21 million! Take a look at the Rays roster - a few names most people would recognize, but largely built with guys who just want to win. We're not a team that can afford large, long-term contracts. So let's not pretend to be something we aren't.
I'm going to enjoy watching major league baseball on TV for the rest of the season regardless of the outcome. Then I'm going to keep my eyes and ears open in the offseason to see what Jocketty and the rest of the organization do. In the end I have no real expectations for 2009, and that's the worst thing of all.
Before you read on - I'm not a cynic. I'm not a glass half empty/half full guy - I'm a "glass is 50% full" guy. I try to see things for what they are.
If the Reds trade Adam Dunn today, they've stamped their ticket to dwelling among MLB's bottom-feeders for years to come. I've never been completely sold on Dunn, but it's not fair to him to rely on a slugger to get you to a World Series. If they let him go, we'll have to hope that opposing pitchers toss the ball underhand.
The Reds have officially been initiated into the fraternity of organizations like the Orioles, the Royals, the Mariners, the Pirates, and - you got it - Jim Bowden's Nationals. Is this team even relevant anymore?
Griffey leaving is ending a marriage that has really been over for years. I hope he stays and rides off into the sunset at the end of the year, but I know he really wants to win a ring. He needs to do what's best for him and his family.
In related trade news, it was comical to see that Manny Ramirez said that Boston "doesn't deserve him." If that's true, then I'm ready for the salary cap in baseball. It must be nice to kick players around, win a World Series, and then go out and pick up your next whipping boy.
Which leads me to my point: this city never deserved Griffey. Griffey is guilty of two things - thinking he still has the body of a 21-year-old and injuring himself while playing hard. At least at 38 years old he's not sitting out a few games for a strained ring finger.
I've lived in Cincinnati for all of my 30 years, and it's been embarrassing to see how people have treated him - on blogs, at the ballpark, in the media, and on talk radio. When it comes to football, we still cheer for guys like Ocho Whino and Chris Henry - people seemingly short on character - when they score. We ignore the fact that Chris Perry hasn't produced since joining the Bengals. But when it comes to baseball, the nay-sayers come out in full force when a legend doesn't make the catch after diving and tearing his rotator cuff.
I'll say it to whoever will listen: signing a contract in sports, regardless of its length, is a gamble. Listening to callers complain "we're paying him all of that money to sit on the bench" made my stomach turn. Nobody came out and immediately complained like I did when the Reds gave millions to a guy like Eric Milton. But we ride the case of an icon because he has to have major surgery that could end his career.
Eric Davis never played more than 135 games a season, but the city loves him. Hall-of-famer? Nope.
Pete Rose goes to jail for tax evasion and finally tells the truth about betting on the game after more than a decade. We cry that he should be in the Hall and raise our beer glasses when his name is mentioned.
The "Kid" comes home and signs a contract for less than the market value to a team whose front office lied to him. No pitching. No defense. Just sitting back and riding the Griffey mania wave and hoping the dollars will flow. And we expected to ride Junior to the World Series?
How long can we continue to wear out the memories of the Big Red Machine and the Wire-to-wire season? Junior never had that kind of team along side of him and it was obvious that it wasn't going to happen. So people thought it bright to take shots at the superstar because they needed someone to blame. Never mind "Uncle Carl," minor league managers, bad trades, and a litany of other media parades that were nothing more than a smokescreen to hide the fact that they had no intention of building a contender.
I will miss the time we've had with one of the greatest players of all time. It's sad that the city will never wake up and realize what it had.