I have been intrigued by all the incessant bashing of Adam Dunn so I decided to do a little research of my own to see what evidence exists for some of the "facts" about him that are so casually tossed out by his detractors.
First let me tell you where I stand. I like Dunn as a player. His explosive power is a joy to behold when hits one into the stratosphere. I also respect his ability to get on base, which is good no matter how people try to dismiss it.
That said, he is a two-diminsional player. His has what Bill James calls "old player" skills, power and OBP without speed and defense.
Anyway, to the point of this particular post. I did a little analysis of his stats using the Bill James concept of clutch situations. Here is what I found:
- Dunn gets 14% less hits overall and 62% less doubles
- He strikes out 21% more often in clutch situations
"Ah, ha!" you say. I knew it all along-hie s is terrible in clutch! Not so fast.
- He homers 21% more often in the clutch (at a rate of 46 HRs per 550 AB vs. 38 non-clutch)
- He drives in runs at an incredible 90% higher rate in clutch situations (on pace of 165 RBI per 550 AB)
- He walks 56% more often in clutch situations.
- Grounds into 56% less double plays in the clutch (only 4 GDIP per 550 AB)
My conslusion? In clutch situations Dunn turns into Uber-Dunn, kind of a cariacature of himself where, if his clutch production was projected into a full major league season, would look like this:
BA .214 OBP .505 2B-12 HR-46 RBI-165 BB-159 SO-201 GIDP-4
Would you accept a .214 Batting average with a .505 OBP, 46 HRs and 165 RBI? Yeah, those strikeouts would be so aggravating...if he would just put the ball in play more often, hit to the oppsite field and stop clogging up the bases!


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Thanks, Hugh! Everyone was wondering where you'd been lately--good to hear you missed Fay altogether.
Amy02:54 PM EST