Hugh
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    Gender: Male
    Location: Orlando
    Relationship: Married
    Orientation: Straight
    Children: Proud Parent
    # of Kids: 2
    Body Type: Some extra baggage
    Religion: Agnostic
    Ethnicity: White / Caucasian
    About Me: Aging baby boomer who loves my family, playing classic rock lead guitar in my band, following the Reds and all types of humor, especially the edgy kind.
    Music: Everything from Springstten to "Indie", blues, 90's grunge, Neil Young, Hank Williams, John Hiatt, Frank Black, Replacements, Lucinda Williams, They Might Be Giants, Freddie King, Johnny Winter, Stones, songs covered in innappropriate genres, Joni Mitchell, garage bands/ lo-fi, Mercy Brown, Pixies, Indigo Girls, Afghan Whigs, John Fogerty, CCR, Hendrix, Clapton, Allmans, Zappa, Liz Phair
    Movies: Boogie Nights, American Beauty, East of Eden. Blue Velvet, The Straight Story, Spinal Tap, Airplane!, Naked Gun, A Christmas Story, Bull Durham, Stand by Me, Wild at Heart, Breaking Away, Clerks, Office Space, Psycho (original), The Natural.
    TV: not so much. CNN news.
    Books: All the Bill Jsmes Baseball Abstracts, historical abstracts etc. Brothers: the Kennedy's. Lincoln's Melancholy. Cabinet of Rivals. East of Eden, Grapes of Wrath, The Beatles: A Biography. Eden Express. Pennant Race by Jim Brosnan. Earl Weaver on Strategy. Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas. Dogs: A History.
    Likes: Guitars, music, old cars, Reds baseball, history, quaint towns and scenes, interesting people, good beers, road trips, long discussions that aren't arguments, minutia and arcane facts, pizza, key lime pie, iced tea.
    Dislikes: Extreme right wing or left wing politics, ignorant people, watermelon, conspicuous consumption, pretensiousness, ideologically or religiously rigid people, the Florida Legislature, shortsightness, negativity
    Hobbies: Writing, playing and listening to music, guitar, bicycling, reading non-fiction.
    Vices: Driving too slow, worrying too much, eating too much, inserting self into wierd situations. Secretly like inappropriate musical genres.
    Virtues: Sensitive, kind, funny, accepting, generous, good to my family, loyal to my friends.
    Heroes: Don't really believe in heroes but I do admire Bill James, Abe Lincoln, my father, my father in law, former Florida Governor Lawton Chiles, Director David Lynch, the late reporter Jack Anderson.

    Dunn More Dunn-like in the Clutch

    Sunday, April 20, 2008, 11:37 PM EST [General]

    I have been intrigued by all the incessant bashing of Adam Dunn so I decided to do a little research of my own to see what evidence exists for some of the "facts" about him that are so casually tossed out by his detractors.

    First let me tell you where I stand.  I like Dunn as a player.  His explosive power is a joy to behold when hits one into the stratosphere.  I also respect his ability to get on base, which is good no matter how people try to dismiss it.

    That said, he is a two-diminsional player.  His has what Bill James calls "old player" skills, power and OBP without speed and defense.

    Anyway, to the point of this particular post.  I did a little analysis of his stats using the Bill James concept of clutch situations.  Here is what I found:

    • Dunn gets 14% less hits overall and 62% less doubles
    • He strikes out 21% more often in clutch situations

    "Ah, ha!" you say.  I knew it all along-hie s is terrible in clutch!  Not so fast.

    • He homers 21% more often in the clutch (at a rate of 46 HRs per 550 AB vs. 38 non-clutch)
    • He drives in runs at an incredible 90% higher rate in clutch situations (on pace of 165 RBI per 550 AB)
    • He walks 56% more often in clutch situations.
    • Grounds into 56% less double plays in the clutch (only 4 GDIP per 550 AB)

    My conslusion? In clutch situations Dunn turns into Uber-Dunn, kind of a cariacature of himself where, if his clutch production was projected into a full major league season, would look like this:

    BA .214   OBP .505   2B-12   HR-46   RBI-165   BB-159    SO-201   GIDP-4

    Would you accept a .214 Batting average with a .505 OBP, 46 HRs and 165 RBI?  Yeah, those strikeouts would be so aggravating...if he would just put the ball in play more often, hit to the oppsite field and stop clogging up the bases!

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Latest Comments


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    Thanks, Hugh! Everyone was wondering where you'd been lately--good to hear you missed Fay altogether.

    Amy
    August 29, 2008
    02:54 PM EST

    Thanks Hugh. I'm sure Bill James has a solid basis for what he defines as clutch situations. And clearly Dunn has been "clutch." His insane .505 OBP also signals he's not getting a lot to hit. I was just curious at to whether there was any statistical information as to what the league average is for RBIs in clutch situations. If Dunn exceeds the league average, it would give more support to those of us who think his contributions are generally undervalued.

    River Otter
    April 21, 2008
    01:39 PM EST

    Ha, that's funny. You're right. It's a word she uses for helping people so it just flowed naturally. Still, very funny.

    Mr. Redlegs
    April 14, 2008
    09:54 AM EST

    Where the hell have you been?

    Mr. Redlegs
    April 12, 2008
    04:06 PM EST

    It's about time you made it to the party.

    River Otter
    April 12, 2008
    01:52 PM EST
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