The Cincinnati Reds Matt-metrics Rating Score as of 04/27/2008:

1421

(Previous rating, on 04/26/2008: 1387, change +34)

While taking a series from the Giants, who have a losing record, is not the most impressive feat, the wins are encouraging at least. In recent memory, west coast road trips normally do not fare well for the Reds, and winning a series in San Francisco is a nice start in hopefully reversing that trend. Since my last post, the Reds won two games in a row. The RBI totals for the Reds picked up this weekend and now sit at 100 for the season. Defensively, the Reds only have one additional error in the past two games. Reds pitchers struck out 197 batters so far this season, and the batting average against Reds pitchers went down from .330 to .325.

Let us all hope the Reds stay on track as they face the second place St. Louis Cardinals. The Reds showed they can defeat a losing team, but the real challenge is competing against a team with a winning record, especially on the road.

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The Cleveland Indians Matt-metrics Rating Score as of 04/27/2008:

1532

(Previous rating, on 04/26/2008: 1535, change -3)

Little changed for the Cleveland Indians, since my last Matt-metrics update. Thus far, the Indians took 2 of 3 games from the Yankees. Barring inclement weather, tomorrow's game decides the series outcome. Unfortunately a masterful display of pitching from C.C. Sabathia did not result in a win, on a day, when the bats went cold for the mighty Cuyahoga warriors. The tribe added 5 stolen bases in the last two games to bring their season total to 15, and added 2 home runs in as many games bringing their 2008 total to 20. The team defense took a marginal downturn as the Indians added 2 errors in the past two games, but that is no reason for concern, unless a trend develops. Overall, the Indians appear to remain in contention for the AL Central division and I enjoyed watching C.C. Sabathia turn in an impressive one run performance.

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The Matt-metrics rating scale:

For more information on the Matt-metrics scale and rating system, please visit the Matt-metrics information page at:

http://mattscheurer.googlepages.com/matt-metrics.html

The Cincinnati Reds Matt-metrics Rating Score as of 04/26/2008:

1387

(Previous rating, on 04/20/2008: 1414, change -27)

Despite a slight increase in offensive production, a minor slip in team defense, and a slip in team pitching sees a downturn in the Matt-metrics score for the Reds. Since my last post, the Cincinnati Reds winning percentage dropped from .421 to .375. The Reds have 3 wins and 7 losses in their last 10 games. Opponents outscored the Reds by 16 runs so far in the 2008 season, which is 6 more runs than at the time of my previous blog update.

On the positive side, the team OPS improved by .35, since my previous post. During the same period of time, the Reds added 21 RBIs to bring their season total to 90 RBIs. The Reds recorded 15 errors thus far into the 2008 season. The last save opportunity for the Reds remains on 04/10/2008, when Francisco Cordero shutdown the Milwaukee Brewers. The team ERA remains unchanged from the last time I checked, but the team WIP increased from 1.22 to 1.28, while the opponents batting average raised from .311 to .330.

Consistency remains a problem for the Reds in 2008. The Reds need improvements in batting and pitching to close the margin on that 16 run differential this season. I hope I have better news to report on my next update of the Reds Matt-metrics score.

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The Cleveland Indians Matt-metrics Rating Score as of 04/26/2008:

1535

(Previous rating, on 04/20/2008: 1432, change +103)

Since my last post, the Cleveland Indians won 4 straight games, and finally look like a contender in the AL Central division. This dramatic turnaround and new trend projects the Indians in the thick of the AL playoff race by season end. By Sunday, the Indians surrendered a total of 89 runs to opponents, while scoring only 79 runs. After defeating the Yankees on 04/25/2008, the Indians outscored opponents 105 runs to 97 so far this season.

The Indians OPS increased from .688 to .711 and the team batting average increased from .235 to .249 on the season. In the previous four games the Indians added 27 RBIs, increasing their season total to 103 RBIs. During the same four game stretch, the Cleveland Indians committed no additional errors on defense. Indians pitching shaved .40 off the team ERA, which is currently 4.17, and doubled their number of saves from 2 to 4. During the four game winning streak, opponent batting average for the season decreased from .368 to .359.

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The Matt-metrics rating scale:

The Cincinnati Reds Matt-metrics Rating Score as of 04/20/2008:

1414

Per my Rating Scale, the early indication has the 2008 Reds missing the post season. However, the sample size is very small, and there is plenty of baseball to play. Batting .244, while opponents bat .311 is not a recipe for winning baseball. So far, opponents outscored the Reds by 10 runs. To increase their Matt-metrics score, the Reds need improvments in team hitting and pitching.

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The Cleveland Indians Matt-metrics Rating Score as of 04/20/2008:

1432

Per my Rating Scale, the early indication has the 2008 Indians missing the post season as well. Again, the sample size is small, and there is plenty of baseball to play for the Tribe. So far, the overall team batting and pitching needs drastic improvement. Indains 2008 opponents have an astounding .606 average winning percentage. The Indians must step up and compete in a tough AL Central division this season.

Last season the Indians had the 2007 Cy Young award winning pitcher, the 2007 AL Manager of the Year, a Gold Glove centerfielder, and three All Stars. Clearly the Indians are underacheiving thus far in April, 2008.

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The Matt-metrics rating scale:

A couple of years ago, I created an averaged index based statistical analysis formula for rating overall baseball team performance, with the goals of prognosticating post-season caliber teams, and being scalable enough to compare team performance at all levels of play and competition. I worked on the formula, during my free time, over the period of a couple of weeks, then tweaked, tested, re-tweaked, and retested the formula until I thought I got it right. Today, I am unveiling the Matt-metrics score for the Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians. I intend to update these scores every week, during the baseball season, with an explanation of the fluctuation of the score.

In anticipation of questions, I am including some information about the Matt-metrics rating system.

Question: What is the actual Matt-metrics formula you created?

Answer: The goal of any blog site is to establish a loyal readership and repeat visitors, and if I made the formula available to the public, nobody would need my blog pages or me around. For the previously stated reasons, I am not publishing the Matt-metrics formula.

Question: What are the criteria included in the Matt-metrics rating system?

Answer: While I am not divulging everything, the system is based on per game averages, and includes some of the following statistics and information:

• Overall team performance such as: run differentials, strength of schedule, and winning percentage

• Team hitting statistics such as: batting average, on-base plus slugging percentage, runs batted in, stolen bases, and walks
• Team pitching statistics such as: batting average against, earned run average, saves, strikeouts, and walks
• Team defensive performance such as: errors and overall defensive quality of play
  
• Adjustments for Designated Hitter leagues
  
• Escalators for less tangible information, such as individual and team achievement awards

Question: What are the maximum and minimum obtainable Matt-metrics rating scores?

Answer: A perfect, or an absolute worst, Matt-metrics rating score simply does not exist, because a team cannot pitch perfectly then continue hitting for infinity, without recording any outs, and record a complete game. Conversely, a team cannot be on the losing end of the aforementioned scenario.

Question: How good or reliable is the Matt-metrics rating system?

Answer: The results from my limited testing of the Matt-metrics rating system appear highly accurate, but the sample size is small. In fact, the sample size is too small to speak about the validity of the Matt-metrics rating system. On the positive and reassuring side, the Matt-metrics system can't be much less accurate than the College Basketball RPI ranking system, the College Football BCS ranking system, or a certain sports network's NFL power rankings each season.

The Matt-metrics rating scale:

Disclaimer:

Matt-metrics ratings and scores exist for entertainment purposes only. All Matt-metrics information is provided as is and without any warranties of any kind. Do not use Matt-metrics information for gambling or any other illegal activity.

Remember, baseball games take place between two teams on the field of play for a reason, because anything can happen at a baseball game. Remember, even the most respected sports prognosticators in the world considered "experts" in their profession are wrong nearly half of the time. Statistically speaking, using this information to gamble on sports events will guarantee a potential loss of all money wagered. Gambling on sports ruined the professional sports careers of Art Schlichter and Pete Rose. Please do not let gambling on sports interfere with, or ruin your personal and/or professional life.

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