So, I come into the Lot D this morning and I see Ian's blog (which should be a few slots below this one, so I won't link it).  We have been in discussions on the Reds' chances, and we certainly agree if they can get to around .500 by the All-Star break (give or take a game or 2) they could be in striking distance for an NL Wild Card.  Well, it had been a while since I checked the standings but Ian inspired me to do just that, and here is what I come up with:

The Reds are currently 39-46 with 11 games to play til the Break.  For the Reds to get to .500 by the Break, they would have to win 9 of 11...which even the most optimistic of us can admit...ain't gonna happen.  So I have come up with a few eh, trajectories of wins and losses needed to finish out the season to get to certain milestones and possibly put them in the playoffs.

To finish the regular season at .500 (81-81), the Redlegs would have to go 42-35 the rest of the way or play at a .545 clip.  (They are currently playing at a .459 clip).

As Ian pointed out, it doesn't take much to get it done in the N.L. as evidenced by "Last year the best team in the NL was Arizona who finished at .556." -Ian-  OK, so let's forget about the division (because we are not in the West), and let's look at the wildcard.  Assuming the Cubbies and to an extent the Cards tail off a little bit, I will randomly guess the NL best win pct., which should be from the NL Central will be .560.  I think that is a reasonable guess.  Let's say the 2nd place NL Central team will be the wildcard with about a .550 win pct.  Again, I think that is a reasonable guess. Now,

For the Reds to finish with a 89-73 record, which is a .549 win pct., they would have to finish the season 50-27 or play at a .649 clip the rest of the way.  Conclusion being, although the Reds are certainly not mathematically eliminated, it surely looks like they may be done for the season.  Reasons for optimism is we are witnessing the building of a great young team who has to take their knocks in order for them to dominate the NL for years to come!

While I'm here, I guess I might as well recommend a movie, a classic, that until last weekend I had never seen before.  Let me admit upfront, I love musicals, and I know musicals are not the most manly thing to like, but what can I do.  My friend LG suggested we watch it (then she fell asleep), but I was skeptical...but I sat there and after 15 minutes I was enthralled, etc. etc. etc.!

The King and I with Yul Brenner and Deborah Kerr

All I can say is, it is regarded as a classic with good reason.  So if you never saw this one like me, and especially if you dig musicals, this one is for you, and really it is for everybody...etc. etc. etc.!  I give this a "this is one of the ones you HAVE to see as an all-time movie classic."

First it was Moms and now this Independence Day weekend, it will be my 2 youngest children (the Kids) so look for the recap next week!

Peace.