It's May 5th and the Cincinnati Reds are statistically the worst team in Major Leage Baseball.  I have to admit from the start, I didn't think they would be this bad.  Most observers and "experts" missed the mark on this team as well.  Popular consensus was that this team was somewhere between a 78 and 85 win team.  Maybe not the best team in the league, but certainly not the worst.

Certainly not this. 

Granted, "it's still early" and there is hypoethetical chance that they could turn this team around and turn into that 78 to 85 win team eventually. To win 78 games they'd have to play slightly above .500 the rest of the season.  To win 85, thye have to play .561 baseball the rest of the year.  Hypothetical aside, I've seen nothing to suggest that this team can play .500 for a month let alone a season.  Nothing short of a miracle would convince me this team could play .561 for a long stretch. Odds are this team will play somewhere around .480 baseball the rest of this season. That calculates out to 62 more wins this year, or 74 for the season.  That's not good, and that's giving them the benefit of the doubt that they can play even that well. 

So, the question then looms.  What do you do?  Actually the question should be what can you do.  The reason for the distinction is that we all know what they should do.  They should turn over this roster and get younger.  They should bring up Jay Bruce and let him perfect his craft against major league pitching. They should follow their practice of letting Johnny Cueto learn in the majors by allowing Homer Bailey to do the same.  They should replace Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. with speedier outfielders that can cover more ground.  They should reshape the offensive roster so that it resembles a major league baseball team rather than a beer league softball team.  They should end the Bronson Arroyo disaster.

But what can they do?

Adam Dunn has a no-trade clause through mid June.  After that point he has a limited no-trade clause only allowing us to trade him to teams he approves of.  Ken Griffey Jr has a full no trade clause.  Bronson Arroyo's contract is worth much more than his right arm can deliver.  Alex Gonzalez may never play again, but will be paid for at least two more years.  Todd Coffey is getting rich in Triple A.  The list goes on.

Realistically Walt Jocketty, and even more importantly Bob Castellini, need to realize that the only way to end the losing here in the near future is by switching out losses on the field for losses on the income statement.  To completely re-shape this team by this time next year there will need to be financial penalties for the Reds.  They will have to eat more contracts.  They will have to include cash in trades to get teams to bite on people like Arroyo.  They will need to overpay to replace some outfield talent. 

They will need to make some tough decisions.

Miracles aside, this team is done. For all intents and purposes they were dead on arrival.  The damage may have been created by Wayne Krivsky, or Dan O'Brien, or even dating back to the contracts and dealings of Jim Bowden.  The fixing will be left to Jocketty.  He resurrected one midwestern baseball franchise.

He's got his work cut out for him the second time around.

Reds @ Cardinals 4/30/08

Top 1st :  Freel starts off with a nice at bat by fouling Looper off repeatedly.  Freel singles to center.  Keppinger dribbles to catcher.  Griffey and Dunn can't manage to get Freel home from second - a similar refrain.  Let's hope it's not a continuing trend today.  After a half inning it's Reds zero, and the Cards coming to bat.

Botton of 1:  Aaron Harang on the hill today for the Redlegs so that should bode well for a series win.  Harang is the classic example of why a pitcher can't be judged solely on wins and losses.  A nice start for Harang as Schumacher K's, followed by a Miles ground out and a fly ball out to Center by Albert.  Does anyone else ever chuckle when George Grande calls him "Prince Albert"?  This is a guy that won't say the "Damn" in Best Damn Sports Show, and his nicknaming a guy the name for a pierced "member"?  At then end of one, they're knotted at zero.

Top of 2:  Encarnacion homers to left - send that guy to AAA (and take Cueto with him!!!). Another good at bat by a Reds batter as Votto makes Looper throw 9 pitches before hitting a ground rule double to left field. David Ross gets the start today at catcher and goes down swinging - one away. My son's favorite player, Aaron Harang, up to bat.  This guy used to be a wretched batter, and he has transformed himself into a servicable hitting pitcher.  He hits the ball to the right side, grounding out to second, but moves Votto on to third.  Back to the top of the order and Ryan Freel reaches first as Votto scores.  Reds are up 2-0.  A nice score by the Reds that didn't involve a home run.  That's been tough to come by - the San Francisco series not withstanding.  Keppinger with a flyout to right ends the inning.  After one and one half Reds 2, Cards 0.

Bottom of 2: Ankiel continues to pester the Reds with a single to center.  No worries 5-4-3 by Glaus.  A walk to Duncan.  Well, well, if it isn't Jason Larue.  He's batting a robust .045 coming into the game.  Ugh - Larue goes deep into the count and manages a single to center.  Guys on first and second with two outs.  Now we get the pitcher in the #8 hole because Tony Larussa is smarter than everyone that's ever put a lineup together.  (To be fair Milwaukee uses this same trick from time to time as well - to get the 2 leadoff guy strategy going).  Looper fouls a couple pitches off, staying alive verus Harang.  Looper then hits a single to right.  Bases loaded and leadoff guy #2 (or is it #1) up now in the form of Ryan (with the bases juiced). Two quick strikes to Ryan and Harang throws a wild pitch - Duncan scores, but LaRue is thrown out trying to get to third.  Not exactly how you'd like to perform versus the bottom of the order.  Add to that the fact that Harang is over 40 pitches through two and this has the makings of a tough start.  He's definitely capable of buckling down and balancing out that pitch count - but we shall see.  After two complete it's Reds 2, Cards 1.

Top of 3: What's fair is fair, I just crticized Harang's pitch count so I must point out that Looper is over 50 pitches heading into this inning.  Griffey extends that with an 8 pitch at bat ending with a fly out to left.  Phillips is up. He grounds out to third.  Dunn singles to left.  Ground out to second by EE.  Middle of 3 - it's Reds 2, Cards 1.

Bottom of 3 : Ryan flies out to left to start things off. Top of the order for the Cards. Skip Schumaker doubles down the right field line. Not good to put guys on base with Pujols looming.  Forget Pujols, Miles knocks him with a single to center. Pujols with a single, and the Cards have them on first and second. I think it's safe to say at this point, at least through 3, Harang doesn't have his A game today. Ankiel singles to right. Miles scores and Pujols to third.  Ankiel is gunned down at second.  Glaus flies out to end the inning. Cards leading 3-2. 

Top of 4th: 69 pitches thus far for Looper.  Let's see if the Reds can stretch him out.  Votto up first and he quickly flies out to center.  David Ross with a groundout to short.  So far Looper's not having to work hard this inning, and now Harang is up. He grounds out to the second baseman and Looper gets out of the 4th with a 10 pitch inning.  Cards up on the Reds 3-2 .

Bottom of 4:  Is it too soon to include Rick Ankiel in the group of "Reds killers"?  Ever since this guy came up last year he's just killed the Reds. Duncan goes down looking for the first out of the inning.  LaRue follows up with a lineout to shortstop for out #2.  The pitcher is now up in the #8 spot.  Three quick strikes and that's a much better result than the last time Harang faced the bottom part of the order.  After 4 the Cards still lead the Reds 4-3.

Top of 5:  On Ankiel, for 2008 he's batting .500 (coming into today) and a 1.60 OPS versus the Reds. Yeah...I think that's killing. Include last year and his OPS is still over .900 and he's batting over .300 as well.  He may not be in Bill Hall's category but he's getting there.  Ryan Freel goes down swinging and Keppinger follows with the mandatory hit for the game. Griffey flies out to CF.  Two down.  The most unlikely to win the "Good Guy" sportswriter award, Brandon Phillips is now up. Phillips out on strikes, and this team continues to struggle to find some level of consistency on offense.  The feast or famine routine is symptomatic of slugging teams - and this team just hasn't slugged with any level of regularity. Let's see if Harang can keep them in it.  After 4 and 1/2 it's Cards over the Reds 3-2.

Bottom of 5:  Two quick fly outs by Ryan and Skip.  Miles grounds out to second to end the inning.  It would appear that Harang has found his groove.  Reds trail the Cards 3-2.

Top of the 6th: At 95 pitches you would think this inning is it for Looper. Two quick strikes on Dunn to start out, but he rallys and doubles into the gap in left.  An attempt at a bunt by Double E for a stike, apparently the bunt strategy has been abandoned after that attempt as he goes down on strikes.   Votto has a double today, let's see if he can deliver again.  He walks. Let's see if LaRussa stays with Looper. Maybe a better question is (with one out) if we get to Harang's spot in the order, will he bat?  Looper stays in, Ross lines out...as does Harang with a man on second and two outs.  I know he's grooving, but this is questionable.    A groundout 6-3, and I'm really having a hard time with that move.  This team has had a month long struggle to get guys on in scoring position and home from there.  With a man on second, down by one, in the sixth...I pinch hit.  Reds trail 3-2.

Bottom of 6: Can't blame Pujols for the last two.  He flies out harmlessly to right.  Harang's only at 85 pitches.  Like I said, he's good enough to balance out bad innings with good.  Of course he just walked Ankiel.  Glaus goes down swinging.  Duncan gets two quick strikes and then works the count full...and walks. Runners on first and second, two straight balls to LaRue.  Not what you want to see. LaRue pops out to first. End of inning.  Cards up 3-2 .

Top of 7:  Top of the order coming up for the Redlegs. Also noteworthy - Looper is done.  He's replaced by McClellan.  Freel singles to left on a 2-2 count.  Let's see if Kepp is bunting or if they have a hit-run play going.  Forget that thought as Kepp grounds into a 6-4-3 DP.  Griffey with a full count and reaches on an infield single against the shift.  BP now up to the plate. Two quick strikes to BP on low and outside pitches.  Make it three strikes.  Still 3-2 Cards.

Bottom of 7: Harang is done as Kent Mercker comes in.  Harang's line - 6IP, 7 hits, 3ER.  Not bad - a quality start.  Barton pinch hitting for the pitcher singles to center. Ryan looks like he's going to bunt. The Cards playing for the insurance run here. The sacrafice works and Barton moves to second with one out.  Schumaker hits it to the right side, grounding out to second and Barton moves to third with two away.  Miles with three straight fouls, a ball, and another foul.  Miles doubles to Center and the Cards get their insurance run.  I hope the Reds were taking notes.  They aren't messing with Pujols as he gets the intentional pass. Not sure I'd do that to get to Ankiel, lefty vs. lefty or not. Like I said....single by Ankiel. Miles scores, Pujols to second.  Oy!  Mike Lincoln in for Mercker.  Easily Mercker's worst showing thus far.  Glaus goes down swining, but the damage is done.  5-2 Cards

Top of 8:  The Unstoppable Ron Villone in for the Cards.  Line out by Dunn.  In comes Ryan Franklin. EE pops out and Votto K's. 5-2 Cards.

Bottom of 8: Single by Duncan followed by an attempted bunt by LaRue that ends in a double play 1-6-4.  Ludwick pinch hits for Franklin and doubles.  Ryan singles and Ludwick moves up to third.  Affeldt in to bail out Lincoln while Hatteberg replaces Votto for a double switch. Schumaker with a long drawn out at bat versus Affeldt. Affeldt is working him exclusively low and away.  Schumaker eventually succumbs.  K.  Cards go into the 9th with a three run lead 5-2

Top of 9:  Isringhausen in for the cards on the hill. Hairston pinch hitting for Ross, and pops out for the first out. Hatteberg flies out to center and we're down to the final out.  Let's see if Freel can extend this at all. A foul out to first instead, and the Reds fall to the Cards and fall to 3-3 on the road trip.  Harang loses again after giving up only 3.  Not a good trend at all.